The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has ramped up its efforts to dismantle Google’s dominance in the online search industry, proposing potential remedies that could not only weaken the tech giant’s primary profit engine but also disrupt its ambitions in artificial intelligence (AI). While any final decision on these remedies may take years, analysts have already begun weighing in on how these changes could reshape the future of Google and its competitors.
Aiming at Google’s Core
On Tuesday, the DOJ outlined various options aimed at curbing Google’s control over online search, including the possibility of forcing the company to divest key parts of its business, such as its Chrome browser and Android operating system. These two elements are seen as critical tools that Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, has used to build and maintain what prosecutors describe as an illegal monopoly in online search.
Additionally, other measures being considered include barring Google from collecting sensitive user data, forcing it to make its search results and indexes available to competitors, and allowing websites to opt out of having their content used to train AI models. A “court-appointed technical committee” might also oversee the company to ensure compliance.
These potential remedies go to the heart of Google’s business model, which has made the company synonymous with internet search over the past two decades. Such changes could significantly reduce Google’s revenue while opening the door for rivals to gain ground.
Disrupting AI Ambitions
Experts warn that the proposed remedies could hinder Google’s efforts in AI development, a field where the company is already facing stiff competition from emerging players. With startups such as OpenAI—creators of ChatGPT—and AI-powered search engines like Perplexity gaining traction, Google is under increasing pressure to maintain its leadership in the space.
Mark Shmulik, an analyst at Bernstein, said, “The last thing Google needs right now in the broader AI battle is having to fight with one hand tied behind their backs by regulators.”
Google’s search ad market share in the U.S. is forecast to dip below 50% by 2025 for the first time in over a decade, according to research firm eMarketer. The DOJ’s proposed remedies could accelerate this decline, giving competitors like Microsoft’s Bing, DuckDuckGo, and AI-driven platforms from Meta and Amazon a boost.
Sharing Data or Losing It
One of the most contentious proposals involves Google’s vast accumulation of user data. Gil Luria, managing director and senior software analyst at D.A. Davidson, explained that the DOJ’s focus on privacy and data remedies could force Google into a difficult decision. “The proposed privacy and data accumulation remedies would give Google the choice to either share all the data it collects or stop gathering the data in the first place,” Luria said. “As it will likely choose the former, that could strengthen its competitors and possibly create new competition.”
Sharing its data could severely undermine Google’s competitive edge, as rivals would gain access to the lifeblood of its search algorithm and advertising business. At the same time, opting not to collect data could significantly weaken its ability to offer targeted ads, thereby reducing revenue.
Reactions From Competitors and Investors
Rivals have expressed cautious optimism about the DOJ’s moves. Kamyl Bazbaz, senior vice president of public affairs at DuckDuckGo, emphasized the need for a broad range of remedies to address Google’s dominance. “The framework understands that no single remedy can undo Google’s illegal monopoly. It will require a range of behavioural and structural remedies to free the market,” Bazbaz said.
However, not everyone believes the proposed changes will be implemented. Industry insiders have noted that the DOJ’s case is reminiscent of the 1999 antitrust case against Microsoft, which ultimately fell short of its most ambitious goals. Adam Kovacevich, CEO and founder of Chamber of Progress, a trade group representing tech companies, referred to the DOJ’s strategy as “remedy spaghetti.”
“It might score some headlines, but it’s a legal non-starter,” Kovacevich said. “The DOJ is throwing out remedies that go far beyond the judge’s ruling, and history tells us that broad remedies won’t survive the appeals process.”
Investor Sentiment
Investors have been anticipating potential legal challenges for Google, including Monday’s ruling against its app store, but the new DOJ plans briefly rattled the market. Alphabet’s stock dropped as much as 2.8% following the announcement.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, highlighted that these risks have been known for some time. “Investors don’t appear to believe a forced break-up will happen,” Mould said, suggesting that market participants are not overly concerned about the DOJ’s proposed remedies leading to dramatic changes in the near future.
A Lengthy Road Ahead
While the DOJ’s intentions are clear, the actual implementation of these remedies could take years. Legal experts predict a protracted battle, with Google expected to mount significant challenges to any ruling that threatens its core business.
For now, the tech giant continues to face pressure from regulators, competitors, and market forces alike, as the future of its search dominance—and its role in the fast-evolving AI landscape—remains uncertain.
