The last quarter of the year, known as the golden quarter, is essential for retailers’ success.
- Experts predict a resurgence in retail due to pent-up consumer demand and moderating inflation.
- Key shopping events such as Black Friday and Christmas are expected to drive significant sales.
- Technological purchases and AI product launches contribute to optimistic forecasts.
- Economic challenges, including potential tax increases, pose threats to consumer confidence.
The last three months of the year serve as a critical period for retailers, often dubbed as the golden quarter. Despite a persistent decline in retail spending this year, industry specialists remain optimistic due to expected consumer demand during the holiday season. Retailers hope that shopping events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas will yield the best performance since pre-pandemic times.
Retail consultant Miya Knights emphasises the role of increased spending power and consumer eagerness to partake in promotional events. Additionally, a survey among industry experts points to moderating inflation, rising wages, and robust savings as indicators of a potentially vibrant holiday sales period.
Nick Bubb from Bubb Retail Consultancy highlights a replace cycle for technology purchased during the pandemic, presenting an opportunity for retailers to capitalise ahead of Christmas. He notes that lower interest rates and the introduction of new AI-linked products could further stimulate sales.
The economic landscape presents certain challenges, notably the tax increases announced in the Autumn budget, which could dampen the anticipated boost in consumer confidence. The sentiment around public finances, influenced by Labour’s portrayal of the fiscal situation, has also sparked cautiousness among consumers.
The British Retail Consortium’s chief, Helen Dickinson, characterises the forthcoming period as ‘crucial,’ observing that many within the sector are ‘holding their breath’ for upcoming spending results. Meanwhile, Linda Ellett from KMPG underscores the fragile nature of consumer sentiment, stressing the importance of avoiding a fiscal misstep that could hinder recovery.
An impressive £13.3 billion was spent during Black Friday in the UK last year, underscoring the period’s significance. However, factors like the cost-of-living crisis and international instabilities have posed severe challenges, especially to smaller enterprises. The previous year marked the worst December sales performance since records began, amplifying the stakes for this year’s golden quarter.
Retailers are cautiously hopeful that the golden quarter will provide a much-needed boost amidst economic uncertainties.
