A recent survey reveals that baby boomers are the most overconfident generation, surpassing Gen Z and millennials.
- Conducted by the Behavioural Insights Team, the survey examined calibration and overconfidence among over 2,000 adults.
- Key findings show 81% of all participants exhibit overconfidence, misunderstanding their knowledge and accuracy.
- Generation-specific results highlighted baby boomers at an 84% overconfidence rate, compared to 75% of Gen Z and 79% of millennials.
- The implications of these findings are significant, affecting decision-making across various sectors, including politics and economics.
The Behavioural Insights Team’s survey explored the calibration and overconfidence of over 2,000 adults, revealing stark generational differences. Calibration measures the gap between perceived and actual correctness. The results show 81% of participants are overconfident, believing their answers are right when they are not.
Generational analysis indicated that baby boomers (aged 60-78) exhibit the highest overconfidence at 84%. In contrast, Gen Z (18-27) and millennials (28-43) show lower rates of 75% and 79%, respectively. This trend suggests an increase in overconfidence with age, as younger individuals seem more aware of their knowledge gaps.
The data uncovered no substantial gender difference in overconfidence but highlighted a 10% higher overconfidence in right-leaning political adherents than those left-of-centre, likely influenced by demographic factors.
One notable test involved recognising facts, such as the capital of Nigeria; Lagos was falsely identified by 85% of respondents with only 30% answering accurately. This illustrates a significant calibration gap.
Principal Research Advisor Dr Mark Egan commented that ‘being well-calibrated is a superpower’. He emphasised the negative consequences of overconfidence, particularly in influential fields like politics and economics, recommending caution and a conscious approach to knowledge uncertainty.
This study underscores the importance of understanding and addressing overconfidence to improve decision-making in critical areas.
