Olive oil prices, which have seen a significant increase due to adverse weather conditions, are anticipated to fall as the situation improves.
The global olive oil market is poised for a significant change as prices are projected to decline. This follows a period of challenging weather that severely impacted olive oil production. Deoleo, the leading olive oil producer, has indicated that forthcoming harvests are expected to outperform those of the previous year, potentially halving current prices. This prediction comes from Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Deoleo’s chief sales officer, who remarked on ongoing tensions in the market but offered a hopeful view for the near future.
Guzmán stated that the market is on the cusp of stabilisation, with expectations of a return to normal as new harvests proceed and supply levels increase. He predicts a notable drop in wholesale prices from November through January, with further reductions anticipated well into 2025. This could see prices dropping from their current range of £7.50 to £8.34 per litre to approximately £4.17. These projections are echoed by other industry experts such as CaixaBank Research, which observed early signs of improvement in October.
The expected decrease in prices will be a welcome relief for consumers who have experienced record highs. Recent statistics from the Office for National Statistics highlight a dramatic 150% price increase in the UK since the end of 2021. Prior challenges included severe droughts and reduced harvests, which exacerbated the situation and led to predictions from the International Olive Council that prices could exceed £16 per litre earlier this year. Premium UK brands had even reached over £18 per litre, adding to consumer woes.
The alleviation of these weather-related challenges is a positive development for both consumers and producers. The forecasted price reductions not only reflect an improved climatic situation but also suggest a stabilisation of the market, potentially restoring equilibrium after years of volatility.
This adjustment in olive oil prices signifies a turning point, where improved weather conditions foster a more stable market environment. The subsequent price relief will likely benefit consumers and encourage a healthier economic landscape for producers after a period marked by high costs and limited supply.
