In a significant shift for the olive oil market, prices are predicted to drop substantially as weather conditions improve and recent harvests yield better production.
The world’s leading olive oil producer has announced optimistic projections for the forthcoming months, anticipating a halving of prices due to favourable harvesting conditions. This news comes as a relief to consumers who have been enduring unprecedented price hikes, with UK olive oil costs having soared by 150% since late 2021.
Miguel Ángel Guzmán, the Chief Sales Officer of Deoleo, in a conversation with CNBC, emphasised the current tension in olive oil prices, especially for premium grades like extra virgin. However, he expressed a positive outlook, predicting market stabilisation in the near future as new harvests increase supply gradually. Guzmán indicated that wholesale prices are expected to decline between November and January, continuing to decrease well into 2025. The anticipated fall would see prices plunge from the current range of £7.50 to £8.34 per litre to approximately £4.17 per litre.
These predictions are echoed by other industry analysts, including CaixaBank Research, who identified early signs of market improvement as far back as October. The downward trend in prices follows a challenging period for the olive oil industry, which has been severely affected by adverse weather conditions, including devastating droughts leading to poor harvest yields.
Earlier this year, analyses by the International Olive Council suggested that olive oil prices could rise to £16 per litre, a significant increase from the already high £14 per litre. Some premium UK brands were even priced beyond £18 per litre. Therefore, the anticipated price drop presents a welcomed change for consumers and retailers alike.
With improved weather conditions and better harvests, the olive oil market is set for a period of stabilisation. This development is particularly beneficial for consumers, who have faced substantial price increases over recent years. As the market adjusts, both supply and demand factors appear to be aligning towards more favourable conditions.
