UK supermarket sales are on track to surpass £13bn for the first time this December, driven by Christmas shopping.
- New data from Kantar indicates a 2.5% increase in take-home sales in the four weeks to 1 December.
- Sales of premium own-label products have increased, with spending predicted to reach nearly 7% by the end of the month.
- Rising costs have impacted Christmas dinner prices, yet overall grocery inflation remains stable at 2.6%.
- Major supermarkets are seeing shifts in market share, with Tesco and Sainsbury’s gaining ground amid varying performances among competitors.
UK supermarkets are poised to achieve an unprecedented milestone, with sales expected to exceed £13bn in December. This surge is largely attributed to the Christmas shopping season, as indicated by Kantar’s latest data. Take-home sales rose by 2.5% in the four weeks leading up to 1 December, with shoppers indulging in festive preparations.
There has been a noticeable increase in the purchase of premium own-label products, which now constitute 5% of spending, and projections suggest this could reach nearly 7% by the month’s end. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, highlighted that “Monday 23rd December is likely to be the single busiest day for supermarkets this year.” He also noted a doubling in biscuit sales and that 8% of consumers have already bought a Christmas pudding.
The demand for non-grocery items has also surged, with sales of general merchandise expected to see significant growth. Spending on such items in December 2023 rose by 21% compared to the average for the year.
Meanwhile, the cost of Christmas dinner has increased, with the price for a family of four now at £32.57, marking a 6.5% rise from the previous year. This is partly due to higher turkey and vegetable prices. Despite this, overall grocery price inflation holds steady at 2.6%, as supermarkets focus on reducing prices, with significant savings accessible through loyalty cards. Multibuy deals remain unchanged, but spending on discounted offers has increased by 14%, amounting to an additional £355 million compared to last year.
In terms of market dynamics, Tesco has expanded its market share to 28.1%, its highest since December 2017, with a 5.2% sales increase over 12 weeks until 1 December. Sainsbury’s has also seen growth, increasing its share to 15.9% with a 4.7% rise in sales. Combined, these two chains now capture 44% of the UK market. Discount retailers performed well, with Lidl’s sales up by 6.6% and Ocado leading online growth with an 8.7% rise, securing 1.8% of the market. Conversely, Asda’s sales have fallen by 3.5% year-on-year, trailing behind in market share expansion.
The retail sector is experiencing a dynamic period of growth and change, with supermarkets driving significant spending shifts during the festive season.
