In a major acceleration of global renewable energy growth, China is set to dominate the world’s green energy expansion, accounting for almost 60% of all new renewable capacity installed between now and 2030, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This surge, led by China’s rapid development of solar power, will make the country the world’s largest player in renewable energy, with over half of the global renewables capacity by the end of the decade.
A Solar-Powered Surge
The IEA’s latest renewable energy report forecasts a massive increase in the global roll-out of clean energy projects, predicting that in the next six years, renewables will expand at three times the rate seen between 2017 and 2023. China, alongside India, is expected to lead this transformation, with solar power playing a pivotal role.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, captured the trend succinctly: “If I could sum this [trend] up in two words they would be: China, solar.”
China’s solar energy growth is anticipated to be so significant that it will constitute 80% of all new global renewable capacity added by the end of the decade. This rapid growth is largely attributed to declining solar panel costs and favorable government policies that encourage both residential and commercial investment in solar technologies.
Slowing Coal, Accelerating Renewables
The rise of renewable energy in China is already having a notable impact on the country’s coal industry. Although China approved 100 GW of new coal power plant permits during 2022 and 2023, this figure has drastically reduced. According to Global Energy Monitor, in the first half of 2024, only 12 new coal projects were approved, totaling 9.1 GW. This shift is driven by China’s strong commitment to increasing solar and other renewable energies, as it works to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.
The IEA report highlights that this transition is not only about reducing emissions or improving energy security but also stems from the fact that renewables, particularly solar, have become the cheapest option for generating power in most countries around the world.
Wind Power’s Revival
While solar is spearheading the renewable energy boom, wind power is also poised for a comeback. After a slowdown due to rising interest rates and supply chain issues, the IEA expects global wind power capacity to double between 2024 and 2030 compared with the previous six years. In particular, offshore wind farms, which are more capital-intensive, are beginning to see renewed growth.
In the UK, the government has committed to quadrupling the country’s offshore wind power capacity by 2030. This includes the development of floating wind turbines, a technology that remains a small share of the offshore wind sector but has significant potential for the future. According to Renewable UK, floating turbines could provide a third of the UK’s offshore wind capacity by 2050, contributing £47bn to the economy, especially in Scottish and Welsh port communities.
Renewables to Outpace Government Targets
The IEA’s findings indicate that renewable energy capacity is growing faster than governments can set targets. By 2030, global renewable capacity is expected to grow by 2.7 times, surpassing government-set goals by nearly 25%. Despite this rapid growth, the expansion still narrowly misses the global target of tripling renewables by 2030, a commitment made by 120 world leaders at the UN’s COP28 climate talks in Dubai.
Nevertheless, Birol remains optimistic, suggesting that it is “entirely possible” to meet this ambitious goal, provided that governments take three key steps to accelerate the process.
Three Steps to Speed Up Renewable Roll-Out
Birol outlined the critical steps that global governments must take to ensure renewables continue to grow at the required pace. First, he emphasized the importance of building power grids that can quickly connect new renewable energy projects. Currently, 1,650 gigawatts of renewable capacity are waiting for grid connections—a figure that has grown by 150GW in just the past year.
Second, he called for governments to streamline the approval process for new renewable energy projects. Currently, it can take up to seven years to get a wind farm approved and five years for a solar farm. Reducing these delays is crucial for speeding up the transition to clean energy.
Finally, Birol urged international financial institutions to increase their support for renewable energy projects, particularly in emerging and developing economies, which are still lagging behind developed nations. Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, has vast solar potential, yet its total solar capacity is equivalent to that of Belgium. “It is frustrating,” said Birol, adding that greater investment in these regions could help close this “energy inequality.”
A Path to a Greener Future
As the global energy landscape shifts toward renewables, China’s role in leading the clean energy revolution cannot be overstated. With solar power at the forefront, the country is poised to become the dominant player in global renewables, pushing the world closer to its climate goals and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
While challenges remain—particularly in terms of grid infrastructure and financial backing for projects in developing regions—the IEA report offers hope that the world is on the right track to a greener, more sustainable future.
