Lebanon Conflict Escalates, But Gaza Remains a Quagmire
Despite Israel’s recent military successes in Lebanon, the war in Gaza rages on with no clear end in sight. While Israeli forces have dealt a significant blow to Hezbollah’s capabilities, including the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, the situation in Gaza remains unresolved. Over 100 Israeli hostages are still held by Hamas, and the humanitarian crisis has reached catastrophic levels, with an estimated nine out of ten Gaza residents displaced.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government faces mounting pressure to outline a plan for Gaza’s future governance once the fighting ends, but no strategy has been announced. The war in Lebanon may have bolstered Netanyahu’s domestic approval, yet the conflict in Gaza continues to undermine Israel’s broader security efforts.
Israel’s Espionage Successes in Lebanon
Following the disastrous 2006 war with Hezbollah, Israel has significantly ramped up its intelligence efforts, both human and electronic. Israeli intelligence has successfully infiltrated Hezbollah ranks through spies and electronic surveillance, including hacked cell phones and security cameras.
One striking example of this intelligence success was the sabotage of Hezbollah’s communications network. Israeli operatives booby-trapped pagers destined for Hezbollah members, leading to a string of explosions on September 17. The operation, meticulously planned through a front company in Hungary, showcased the precision of Israel’s intelligence capabilities.
Despite this, the question remains: Did Israel need to escalate the conflict with Lebanon while it is still entangled in Gaza?
Gaza Conflict Stretches Israel’s Resources
Since Hamas began launching attacks on Israel in October 2023, the Israeli military has focused heavily on dismantling Hamas’s infrastructure in Gaza. Israel claims to have dismantled 22 out of 24 Hamas battalions, yet outside experts dispute these figures, warning that Hamas retains the capacity for guerrilla warfare. This raises concerns that Israel could face a protracted conflict, similar to its past entanglements in southern Lebanon.
The Israeli government’s reluctance to involve the Palestinian Authority in Gaza’s future governance complicates matters further. Without a stable administration in place, international investment in Gaza’s reconstruction is unlikely. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with hostages in Gaza reportedly starving and at risk of execution by their captors.
Lebanon: A War Israel Was Ready For
Hezbollah’s involvement in the conflict, marked by rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel, has forced Israel to respond on two fronts. While Hezbollah has long posed a significant threat, its participation in Syria’s civil war stretched its capabilities, making it more vulnerable to Israeli espionage.
For Netanyahu, Lebanon presented a war he was prepared to fight. Israel had the intelligence advantage and the military capacity to disrupt Hezbollah’s operations. However, critics argue that Israel could have de-escalated tensions by negotiating a cease-fire in Gaza, thereby removing Hezbollah’s justification for its attacks. Instead, the escalation with Hezbollah has now taken on a life of its own, potentially restoring the group’s popularity as a resistance force.
Intelligence Failures in Gaza: A Harsh Reminder
Israel’s recent military and intelligence successes in Lebanon cannot obscure the failures that led to the current Gaza conflict. In the lead-up to the October 2023 Hamas attack, Israeli intelligence appeared to underestimate the threat posed by the Palestinian group. Despite years of intelligence-gathering, Israel’s leadership was caught off guard by the extent of Hamas’s tunnel networks and military assets.
Brigadier General Yossi Sariel, the head of Israel’s elite Unit 8200, resigned shortly after the attack, admitting that he had failed to prevent it. His resignation followed that of Major General Aharon Haliva, who had stepped down months earlier due to similar intelligence shortcomings. Investigations by Israeli media have since revealed that the military’s focus on Iran and Hezbollah left it blindsided by the brewing crisis in Gaza.
What Lies Ahead?
As Israel navigates these twin wars, the outcome remains uncertain. While Israel has made strides in neutralising Hezbollah’s capabilities, it faces the risk of being drawn into a long-term conflict reminiscent of its occupation of southern Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s. Meanwhile, in Gaza, the absence of a post-war plan and the ongoing hostage crisis continue to erode public trust in Netanyahu’s leadership.
Israel’s military strategy may have succeeded in Lebanon, but the ongoing catastrophe in Gaza remains unresolved. Without a comprehensive political solution, both conflicts could leave lasting scars on Israel’s security landscape.
